In the last posts I have spent some time considering the future. I believe that there will be some big changes in the medium term (i.e. the next 10 years)regarding such topics as the whole education industry, and how we will be fundamentally changing (even more..) how we deal with information and personal data because of coming changes in the devices we use.
All changes exhibit unforeseen, second order effects. Sometimes these second order effects are (subjectively) good, sometimes bad. With the advent of the internet, or even networking computers in a more general sense, who could have foreseen such things as Facebook? With the advent of Facebook, who could have foreseen some of the bullying problems which are so often portrayed in tabloid media?
There have been some great technological changes in our society (even in the last hundred years) which are so ubiquitous that most people aren’t aware of these changes. Certainly the telegraph opened some of these doors, which led to telephone, radio, TV, etc. On the other hand, it was only a few years ago when Western Union finally delivered the last real telegraph. I guess that this technology is now long forgotten.
In the 19th century most technological improvements were front page news. Now it seems that either out current technology is so advanced that most people don’t even understand what it is, or we have become so insouciant that we just don’t care (that is, unless it is an iPhone 4G…).
This might be a leading indicator for the fact that the internet has become a huge democratic institution only so far in that the vast majority of users are consumers, not producers. If you were to discount the contributions which exist on Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, and e-mail, the vast remainder of the content on the internet is the result of a very small number of people.
This divergence between consumers and creators is far too similar to what life in the Middle Ages was like. Then, in the 10th century, a small coterie of intellectuals, monks, Clerics, and some aristocracy controlled access to information. Few could read, and fewer had access to any books. Now a small coterie of intellectuals, some modern day monks (i.e. hackers), corporate and advertising interests (our modern Clerics and aristocracy) creates and controls the content. This is no conspiracy; it is merely that the vast majority of people are too resistant to write more than 140 characters, or too afraid to learn some rudimentary HTML (the modern Latin of our day…).
I wonder what second order effects we could extrapolate from this situation.
I have to admit that a blog post might not be the most effective means to examine this idea (it needs a good conversation…). As a means to further any conversations you might have I will throw in a couple technological advances and examine a second order effect.
First there is the Banana boat (reefer ships). The advances in the use of steam powered ships created a revolution in the kinds of foods which became available in larger temperate cities (i.e. New York, Boston, etc.)
In 1885, Baker and Preston set up the Boston Fruit Company, which in 1899 became the United Fruit Company. Boston Fruit signed an agreement in 1894 with Keith to sell his bananas in the United States north of Cape Hatteras, not only putting Boston Fruit in a remarkably strong marketing position but ensuring that their ships would be full.
By the turn of the century, steamships were beginning to replace sailing vessels. This meant more trips per season, and more profits. Equally important as increased speed was the introduction of mechanical refrigeration. Now fruit could be kept green until it arrived at market. Finally, market arrivals could be planned, volumes sold on a regular basis, and the market regularized.
http://www.greatwhitefleet.com/about/aboutgwf.asp
Then, there is the bicycle effect; this effect was noticeable in much of Great Britain in the late 19th century. As bicyclers became more popular, young men were capable of searching much further afield in pursuit of their ‘fancies’.
Sociologists suggest that bicycles enlarged the gene pool for rural workers, by enabling them to easily reach the next town and increase their courting radius.
http://www.chemistrydaily.com/chemistry/Bicycle
